Don't be fooled by early US vote counts: They might be misleading
World
Early vote returns in US battleground states may not be a good indicator of whether Harris or Trump
(Web Desk) - Early vote returns in US battleground states may not be a good indicator of whether Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican rival Donald Trump will win, experts say, thanks to vote counting rules and quirks in several key states.
In the 2020 election, some states showed a "red mirage," in which Trump was leading on election night, before a "blue shift" saw Democrat Joe Biden overtake him as mail-in ballots favoured by more Democratic voters were counted.
Experts had accurately predicted it would happen but Trump still used the shift to amplify his false claims that the election was stolen.
It could happen again this week, especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The opposite — a “blue mirage” apparently showing a strong result for Harris only for a “red shift” to reverse the trend — could also happen this week, especially in North Carolina and Georgia.
Trump’s campaign team has said he plans to declare victory when his team believes he has crossed the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the election. That could be premature, depending on how many votes have yet to be counted and where they come from.
How it all plays out will depend on how and when the large numbers of mail-in or early ballots are processed and counted in the different states.
Another factor is that Democrats tend to live in more populous urban areas, where counting votes takes longer.
There are seven battleground states likely to decide the election, each with its own rules for handling and counting ballots.
