Summary NEPRA schedules public hearing for November 3 ahead of electricity tariff rebasing
ISLAMABAD (Dunya News) - Pakistan’s power purchase price could reach Rs27.309 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2027, with the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee Limited (CPPA-G) estimating total electricity procurement costs of Rs3.55 trillion under its base-case scenario.
The projections have been submitted as part of the planned rebasing of consumer-end electricity tariffs for ex-Wapda distribution companies (XWDISCOs), which is scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027. The revised estimates will help determine the reference costs used to calculate electricity tariffs for the new period, The News reported on Tuesday.
According to CPPA-G’s projections, the power purchase price could range from Rs25.883 per unit under the ideal scenario to Rs29.255 per unit under the second-worst-case scenario. The estimates reflect potential variations in fuel expenses, exchange rates, capacity payments and other costs.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has scheduled a public hearing on the projections for November 3, 2026, at 2pm at NEPRA Tower. Stakeholders will also be able to participate online through Zoom, while interested and affected parties have been invited to submit their comments and objections.
Under the base-case scenario, CPPA-G has assumed annual electricity demand growth of 2.60%, an exchange rate of Rs279 against the US dollar and electricity sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours (GWh) to distribution companies.
Capacity payments account for the largest share of the projected expenditure, estimated at Rs1.91 trillion, equivalent to Rs14.717 per unit. Fuel costs are projected at Rs1.32 trillion, or Rs10.141 per unit, while variable operation and maintenance expenses are estimated at Rs70.58 billion, equivalent to Rs0.543 per unit.
Transmission-related expenses and charges payable to the Ministry of Finance are projected at a combined Rs248.30 billion, translating into Rs1.909 per unit.
The projections indicate that capacity payments will remain a major component of electricity procurement costs, while fuel prices and exchange-rate fluctuations could also influence the overall cost during calendar year 2027.
In two worst-case scenarios, CPPA-G has assumed that the rupee will weaken to Rs290 against the US dollar, compared with Rs279 in the other scenarios. Under these assumptions, the projected power purchase price rises to Rs28.835 per unit in Worst Case-I and Rs29.255 per unit in Worst Case-II.
A demand-sensitivity scenario assumes annual growth of just 0.70%, bringing projected electricity sales down to 127,937 GWh. Under this scenario, the power purchase price is estimated at Rs27.568 per unit, reflecting the impact of lower sales volumes and revised capacity-cost assumptions.
Meanwhile, a separate scenario examining the mix of re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) and gas puts the projected price at Rs26.441 per unit. The ideal scenario estimates the price at Rs25.883 per unit, primarily due to lower fuel costs.
Across all six scenarios, the assumptions include a Karachi Interbank Offered Rate (KIBOR) of 11.70%, a Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) of 3.98%, US inflation of 2.10%, domestic inflation of 8.20% and National Grid Company (NGC) losses of 2.50%.
The proposed power purchase prices remain subject to regulatory review as part of the tariff rebasing process. The projections do not represent the final electricity rates consumers will pay, as the retail tariff will depend on NEPRA’s determinations and applicable taxes, duties, subsidies and other components.
The November 3 hearing will allow stakeholders to present their views on the assumptions and cost estimates that will help shape the revised consumer-end electricity tariff framework from January 2027.
