Summary Global cervical cancer cases are projected to rise 20.2% and deaths 39.3% by 2050, with sub-Saharan Africa facing the steepest increase.
SYDNEY (Web Desk) – Cervical cancer cases and deaths worldwide are projected to increase significantly by 2050, with sub-Saharan Africa expected to experience the sharpest rise, according to a new study analysing global disease trends.
According to international media reports, Australian and international researchers analysed cervical cancer cases, deaths and their impact on health across 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2023. They also assessed projected trends in the disease up to 2050.
According to a summary of the research published on Tuesday on the Australian Science Media Centre website, approximately 887,000 new cervical cancer cases were recorded worldwide in 2023, while the disease claimed around 369,000 lives.
The study, published in the journal Nature Medicine, projected that the annual number of new cases could reach 1.08 million by 2050, representing a 20.2 per cent increase compared with 2024. Meanwhile, annual deaths are expected to rise by 39.3 per cent to approximately 522,000.
The research identified sub-Saharan Africa as the region likely to face the largest increase in both cervical cancer cases and deaths. By 2050, cases in the region are projected to increase by 88.7 per cent, while deaths could rise by 95.4 per cent.
According to the findings, the annual number of deaths from cervical cancer in sub-Saharan Africa could reach approximately 206,000.
The researchers warned that if current trends continue, none of the seven regions assessed in the study will achieve the World Health Organization's (WHO) target for eliminating cervical cancer by 2050.
Under the WHO target, the number of new cervical cancer cases must fall below four per 100,000 women to meet the threshold for eliminating the disease as a public health problem.
The researchers emphasised the need to expand vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), improve screening programmes for early detection and ensure greater access to treatment. However, the availability of these essential healthcare services varies considerably across different parts of the world.
The study also highlighted significant disparities between countries based on income levels. In 2023, the age-standardised incidence rate of cervical cancer in low-income countries was more than four times higher than in high-income countries.
Similarly, the mortality rate in low-income countries was more than seven times higher than in wealthier nations, underscoring the unequal burden of the disease and the need to improve prevention, early diagnosis and treatment worldwide.
